see mata type...

a sloTom production

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Teddy's Quote

You know the famous T. Roosevelt quote about "It's not the critic that counts..." something about it's about the man in the arena who does all the hard work? Well that speech was actually given at the Sorbonne (what a waste) but often people ignore something he says later on that I think is important and completes the first quote and without it, the morality of the first quote is non-existent. First here's the quote everyone posts:

"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. "

Here's the latter part, which I feel is equally important.

"But if a man's efficiency is not guided and regulated by a moral sense, then the more efficient he is the worse he is, the more dangerous to the body politic. Courage, intellect, all the masterful qualities, serve but to make a man more evil if they are merely used for that man's own advancement, with brutal indifference to the rights of others. It speaks ill for the community if the community worships these qualities and treats their possessors as heroes regardless of whether the qualities are used rightly or wrongly. It makes no difference as to the precise way in which this sinister efficiency is shown. It makes no difference whether such a man's force and ability betray themselves in a career of money-maker or politician, soldier or orator, journalist or popular leader. If the man works for evil, then the more successful he is the more he should be despised and condemned by all upright and far-seeing men. To judge a man merely by success is an abhorrent wrong; and if the people at large habitually so judge men, if they grow to condone wickedness because the wicked man triumphs, they show their inability to understand that in the last analysis free institutions rest upon the character of citizenship, and that by such admiration of evil they prove themselves unfit for liberty."

I think people just like the first one because it's shorter and basically says if you work hard it's ok to ignore the critics because they don't know what it's like. Even if you're working hard maliciously. The second part says that morality is important. I guess maybe people also only like the first part because we don't like to be morally accountable. Sometimes it's just too damn hard.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Maxims

I have found myself reverting back to reviewing some maxims to refocus a bit.

Liss found this one which doesn't apply to me but is important anyways:

136 Il y a des gens qui n'auraient jamais ete amoureux s'ils n'avaient jamais entendu parler de l'amour

I prefer this one today:

481 Rien n'est plus rare que la veritable bonte; ceux memes qui croient en avoir n'ont d'ordinaire que de la complaisance ou de la faiblesse.

of to study now.  rounds 17-20.  almost done

Thursday, April 09, 2009

On twitter!

haven't posted recently, life has been a bit busy and the combination with bouts of laziness results in serious lack of productivity on my blog.  hopefully sooner or later i'll have time to expound on something useful but as of now taxes, international finance and the New England Patriots are consumer my time.  however i have joined the twitter bandwagon in the idea that i feel that people should listen to me numerous times on a daily basis.  check it out:

www.twitter.com/christophermata

if that doesn't work just look up username: christophermata

here's something to think about until i post again (if you know me long enough you know where i get this from):

#500 il y a des gens si remplis d'eux-memes que, lorsqu'ils sont amoureux ils trouvent moyen d'etre occupes de leur passion sans l'etre de la personne qu'ils aiment

i'd tell you the english version but that ruins half the fun

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

thoughts on the stimulus package and pay caps

During the presidential election, I feared that my candidate would win and then disappoint me when it came to economic policies.  Despite having a strong Chicago background and even having Goolsbee on his staff I don't agree with some of his current propositions and can only justify them by telling myself that this is all just political posturing to give him some time to find real solutions.  As much as I regret saying this the solution in long run is a comprehensive regulation protocol that would help monitor the financial industry.  The lack of regulation from the previous administration only magnified the dangerous policies implemented by the Greenspan administration.  Unfortunately the easiest blame right now is being brought onto the banks.  No one was complaining when people were buying homes and borrowing with ease and now that they cannot pay those obligations the banks get the blame.  What happened here?

To oversimplify what happened is that Greenspan decided to boost economic growth by encouraging banks to lend by lowering interest rates to historical lows.  Remember that?  Low mortgages!  Historically low rates! Refinance now!  Moreover, the SEC decided to change their rules to permit certain financial instruments off the balance sheets of the banks!  Normally, what happens is theoretically banks take deposits (or borrow money from the government) and lend that money to other people they have to balance a safe ratio of deposits and loans out the door.  Well the SEC told the banks that they are willing to change the rules and let them lend more than usual if they set it up in a complicated way.  Well of course the banks said yes to that and structured it so they could lend as much as possible  The rules had changed and they could borrower cheaper.  Plus the rating agencies (who are suppose to watch you) say that its safe.

Now you're pissed because you feel the banks were trying to screw people.  Think about it this way you're a fat kid in a room (the bank) and there is a plate of cookies in front of you.  You know that if you eat it'll make you fatter, but then the government comes in an puts a sign that says "diet cookies" in front of plate.  Heck you'd eat it.  Trust me.  Maybe a bad example but you get what I mean.

Of course now people realize that they can't pay these mortgages anymore and the banks are eating it up the ass since people can't pay anymore.  The banks are confused now the rating agencies said that these mortgages are safe - turns out the rating agencies actually didn't know what was going on.  Business was so busy that they decided that the banks must know what they are doing - the government assumed the same thing to.

Now what does Obama want to do?  He wants to increase government spending and try to buy our way out of this.  Sorry buddy doesn't work like that.  Gov't spending is not efficient and takes away from private spending.

Check out the Fama French link for details why...

So I really do think that he's just stalling until he can really figure out what to do.  Well I hope...

Off topic what about this pay cap?

DUMB IDEA.  Are you serious?  I can't even believe this was an option.  Dumb dumb dumb.  So you're basically telling these people "hey we think you messed up, can we pay you less to fix it?"  It's about incentives people!  You need to give people incentive to fix the problem!  I'm not saying them pay them more I'm saying make their future intertwined with the firms.  Often times it already is, stop looking at their bonuses do you know how much money these people have already lost because of this crises!? MILLIONS!  Dick Fuld lost almost 90% of his wealth!  We're talking about close to $1 B!  The compensation of these executives constitute about 1% of the total revenue of these banks!  What's stopping these people from just leaving then?

So what's the solution? Smarter regulations... long term management change.... encouraging monetary policy.  And GDP growth (not unemployment), GDP.  It's not an employment issue people, its a GDP growth.  If GDP grew and people were still unemployed that'd be great that means were more productive with less work.  If GDP stayed the same and unemployment dropped that means we hired more people but we're not richer meaning we're less productive.  Realistically what happens is we become more productive and need more workers because we are so awesome...

It's a tough road.

Here's one way to start, read Friedman's idea:


Thursday, November 06, 2008

Yes We Can. Can he?

I am no political pundit, I have no credentials whatsoever and I am proud to be given the right to free speech.  I would like to think that I am relatively well informed.  These opinions are my own.  From the title of this blog it is obvious that this is going to be about Barack Obama.  And if you know me well, you know that this is a candidate I have sported for some time now.  There's a lot rhetoric of this historical event and I'm not going to talk about those things, there's better venues for that.  Rather I am more concerned about what challenges lie ahead for our President-elect in foreign policy.  Why not domestic?  Because given his support in Congress he has many options domestically.  Outside the US?  Not so much.

  Obama acknowledges that it will take time for "change" to come and it might not all occur in this term.  He even acknowledges that situation he's facing: two wars, environmental issues, and a financial crises.  This is a far steeper slope that George W. Bush has to climb after winning in 2004.  If Obama needs time to create change there is one important weakness in victory: Obama only won 52% of the popular vote this is just 1% more than Bush won in 2004.  This means that almost as many people voted against him as voted for him and we all know what happened to Bush.  If Obama won 60% of the votes then he does not have to worry as much but the fact remains: the country remains divided.

Obama must unite the country.  Can Obama keep his promises to his followers and attract his opponents?

(This is where Bush failed.  Like Obama, Bush came in with support from the Senate and House but decided to govern without concern for the other half of the country.)

Obama will start out with fanfare for sure.  As a noted rhetorician he'll blow away the crowd with his inauguration speech, it might be even historic.  Everyone will love him except the very most bitter opponents.  January and February will be a vacation for President Obama.  And then Spring will come.  This is what he will face:

AFGHANISTAN

Obama has long said that this is the true war on terror and he will focus his attention on this.  Moreover, he has promised to look to his allies for support which has excited the Europeans who long hoped for an open US foreign policy.  Most European countries will long to provide some support just to show their excitment about Obama, but due to the recent financial crises no European country can afford to do so.  Continued at its pace the US cannot win and stablize the Taliban in Afghanistan without more support.

What are his choices?  Obama can maintain the status quo but end up not winning which is something US, much less Obama, cannot afford.  Obama can withdraw - which um, based on my previous statement is not an option.

Solution? He must talk to the Taliban (unless we successfully transfer resources from Iraq)

What!? Obama must talk to the Taliban because without additional support the US cannot win this war.  President Obama must be PERFECT in this discussion as the Republicans will pressure him for such a radical action.  Failure in this will lose support from the right and the left.

IRAQ

Obama promised his followers that he would withdraw from Iraq and unlike McCain does not want to leave any presence behind.  If the US leaves Iraq, then Iran can move in to be a more influential player in the region.  Iran has long wanted to be involved in Iraq and without a US presence this becomes possible.  With an Iranian influence in Iraq from a US withdrawal, our regional allies will possibly become upset.  The obvious ones are the Saudis and Israelis.  The US, especially with our oil needs and war against terror, cannot afford to upset the Saudis and the Saudis would be at risk of succumbing to Iranian pressure through Iraq if the US leaves.  Israelis, almost without doubt the "mortal" enemies of Iran will want to keep US forces in the region to prevent Iranian expansion.  Furthermore, Jordan and Turkey, other US allies, might step in to plead with Obama to keep the US in the region.  No moderate Middle Eastern government wants expansion of Iranian influence in the region.  Obama will have a hard time resisting the Saudis and Israelis.

So what is Obama to do?

If he withdraws from Iraq he can face regional pressure from our allies and then open up more attacks from the Republicans.  If he maintains some presence in Iraq he can fend off some of the Republicans and maintain relationships with our allies but will disappoint his followers.  

Solution? He must talk to the Iranians and broker a deal.

If he does this he can withdraw and maintain relationships with allies and keep supporters.  If he tries this and fumbles it he risks losing the right for talking to the Iranians and his supporters for simply not withdrawing.

RUSSIA

Look what Russia did after Obama won.

Obama opposed Russia defending itself from Georgia but Obama has not made a clear stance on Russia.  Since Georgia, Russia has strengthened by bringing in support from weakened US allies such as Ukraine.  President Obama will look to historical US allies in Europe for support.  The US has long built a circle of allies around Russia but with US weakened US presence in the area Russia has expanded its sphere of influence.  Obama must reach for support from our existing allies to try to retain strength the area, however Russia has demonstrated that our allies might need Russia more than they need us.  Merkel and the Germans rely on Russia for energy, Brown and Sarkozy are too afraid of military build-up to team up with the US.

Solution? Obama must talk to the Europeans as a whole to reshape the Russian-American Relationship

To succeed in foreign policy Obama must withdraw from Iraq with support from Iran, he will need to focus on Afghanistan and deal with the Taliban (if the first is successful Afghanistan may be easier for Obama), then he must deal with the Russians and Europeans.  Russia has played hardball and the Europeans will look to Obama for guidance.  Although Obama wants European support and the Europeans want to work with Obama, the Europeans at this point given the financial crisis have nothing to offer him.

Obama's challenges are extraordinary and he has been a phenomenal candidate in his pursuit of power, but can use it?  Bush couldn't.  I don't know the answer to this question.  This will take amazing manuevering and skill and he'll some followers but hopefully gain some new believers.  He must be Machiavellian without appearing to be Machiavellian.  That's how great presidents do it and it explains bringing in Rahm Emanuel.

I wish you the best of luck President Obama.